Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.12
Edge
+1.2%All 167 games
10%16/167 over 0.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
6%
1/18
Avg0.10
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 28.8% | 89.6 | .125 | .125 | 6.7% |
| Four-seam FB | 26.8% | 93.4 | .239 | .391 | 13.0% |
| Sweeper | 16.1% | 83.4 | .000 | .000 | 33.3% |
| Curveball | 12.7% | 86.3 | .214 | .286 | 35.0% |
| Changeup | 7.8% | 86.7 | .133 | .133 | 58.3% |
| Sinker | 7.8% | 93.0 | .200 | .200 | 18.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jake Cronenworth clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 69% · n=27 · -258 DraftKings
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 65% · n=28 · -206 DraftKings
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 78% · base 51% · n=27 · +101 dabble_us_dfs
Gavin Sheets o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 58% · n=13 · -148 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 167 games vs 0.5
home only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +856 | -833 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs AZ — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 0/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Gavin Sheets SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Merrill SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Manny Machado SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Campusano SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sung-Mun Song SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Manny Machado SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodolfo Durán SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ty France SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Merrill SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS