Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jake Cronenworth

San Diego Padres · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.70
Edge
-7.7%
Last 20
8%1/12 over 1 · 8 push
Window avg
0.50
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/4
L10
13%
1/8
L20
8%
1/12
2026
14%
1/7
Avg0.55
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.125.1256.7%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.239.39113.0%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.000.00033.3%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.214.28635.0%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.133.13358.3%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.200.20018.4%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Jake Cronenworth clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Manny Machado o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 66% · n=188 · -167 dabble_us_dfs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 65% · n=179 · -206 DraftKings
Gavin Sheets o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 61% · base 58% · n=89 · -148 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 1

official box scores
1@ SF08/120@ LAD08/150@ LAD08/160vs SF08/181vs LAD08/221vs BAL09/030@ COL09/051vs CIN09/081vs CIN09/101@ NYM09/171vs AZ09/270@ CHC09/300vs DET03/262vs DET03/270@ BOS04/040@ BOS04/051@ LAA04/180vs CWS05/030@ CHC06/290@ CHC06/301

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-162+122
dabble_us_dfs0.5-141+143

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Manny Machado SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Sung-Mun Song SD07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.111.000.000.286.211.818.455.750.500
Exit Velo
91.2990.8577.7389.8590.2385.0286.1583.4891.92
AVG
.111.000.000.286.211.455.182.375.333
onBasePercentage
.111.000.000.286.200.455.182.375.333
OPS
.222.000.000.571.4001.273.6361.125.833