Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.24
Edge
-4.8%All 370 games
14%53/370 over 0.5
Window avg
0.16
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
20%
18/91
Avg0.16
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | .381 | .857 | 28.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .226 | .443 | 25.1% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .429 | .612 | 17.9% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .310 | .310 | 33.3% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .313 | .563 | 32.7% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .341 | .732 | 32.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Pete Crow-Armstrong clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 66% · n=47 · -183 DraftKings
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 60% · n=49 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Colin Rea o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 70% · base 44% · n=10 · +110 DraftKings
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 62% · n=50 · -147 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 370 games vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +281 | -278 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BAL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Bleday CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
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