Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.71
Edge
+7.2%Trending splitsvs LHP 6%(18)
Last 20
25%5/20 over 1.5
Window avg
0.80
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
16%
12/77
Avg0.47
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .279 | .535 | 27.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .326 | .579 | 13.3% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .365 | .500 | 10.3% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .250 | .464 | 39.7% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .200 | .500 | 18.4% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .300 | .400 | 26.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ryan O'Hearn clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 76% · base 52% · n=33 · +112 dabble_us_dfs
Esmerlyn Valdez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 67% · n=8 · -153 DraftKings
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 63% · n=19 · -119 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=29 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Runs Scored — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Runs Scored
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Pick6 | 0.5 | -137 | — |
| Betr Picks | 0.5 | -137 | — |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +131 | -130 |
Line movement — Runs Scored
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Betr PicksDK Pick6dabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Runs Scored, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Ronny Mauricio NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Francisco Lindor NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS