Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.30
Edge
+14.1%Last 20
10%2/20 over 1.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
3%
2/77
Avg0.13
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .279 | .535 | 27.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .326 | .579 | 13.3% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .365 | .500 | 10.3% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .250 | .464 | 39.7% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .200 | .500 | 18.4% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .300 | .400 | 26.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ryan O'Hearn clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 89% · base 63% · n=9 · -119 dabble_us_dfs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 79% · base 52% · n=14 · +112 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 67% · n=11 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +739 | -714 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs ATL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| A.J. Ewing NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS