Xander Bogaerts

San Diego Padres · 2B · Bats R

Tonight's line

0.5

Model proj

0.03

Edge

—

Batter Strikeouts Hits Hits + Runs + RBIs Home Runs RBIs Runs Scored Stolen Bases Total Bases Walks

Last20

Trending splits

Last 20

15%3/20 over 0.5

Window avg

0.15

Median

0.0

0/5

L10

10%

1/10

L20

15%

3/20

2026

17%

3/18

Avg0.11

StreakL8

Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5

away only · official box scores

Parlay pairs — when Xander Bogaerts clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Gavin Sheets o0.5 Hits

hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=16 · -145 DraftKings

Gavin Sheets o0.5 Total Bases

hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=16 · -170 Caesars

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

0.5

• = main line. Alt ladders load in the hour before first pitch.

Book	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Caesars	+525	—

Home Runs · best price bolded · odds refresh every poll

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Caesars

Time	Book	Move
8:00 AM ET	Caesars	0.5 → 1.5
8:00 AM ET	Caesars	1.5 → 0.5
5:00 AM ET	Caesars	0.5 → 1.5

League vs TOR — Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 0/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Arraez SF

07/08

Bogaerts's hitting zones (batter data)

Where he produces at the plate — official MLB hot/cold zones from his own at-bats, catcher's view, red hot / blue cold. Compare against the opposing pitcher's arsenal above: a fastball-heavy righty living up-and-in is a problem if that zone runs cold.

Advantage: hits .412 up-and-in · Weakness: .083 down-and-in

OPS

AVG

onBasePercentage

Exit Velo

sluggingPercentage