Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Xander Bogaerts

San Diego Padres · 2B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.74
Edge
-12.0%
Last 343
24%84/343 over 1.5
Window avg
0.93
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
23%
20/86
Avg0.93
StreakL7

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.250.43819.0%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.250.40815.2%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.182.33320.0%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.192.19242.9%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.130.13034.9%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.261.37514.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 343 vs 1.5

official box scores
0@ PHI06/020@ PHI06/030@ PHI06/040vs NYM06/050vs NYM06/061vs NYM06/072vs CIN06/081@ BAL06/120@ BAL06/130@ BAL06/140@ STL06/150@ STL06/162@ STL06/170@ TEX06/191@ TEX06/202@ TEX06/210vs ATL06/220vs ATL06/232vs ATL06/240vs LAD06/260vs LAD06/272vs LAD06/282@ CHC06/291@ CHC06/300@ CHC07/011@ LAD07/021@ LAD07/031@ LAD07/040@ LAD07/050vs AZ07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-216+161
dabble_us_dfs0.5-154+156

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Manny Machado SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.412.263.400.286.205.250.083.321.129
sluggingPercentage
.765.421.421.654.227.357.333.393.161
AVG
.412.263.368.308.205.250.083.321.129
OPS
1.176.684.800.893.432.607.417.714.290
Exit Velo
94.2994.4990.6588.1992.4986.3690.5393.9284.53