Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Xander Bogaerts

San Diego Padres · 2B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.74
Edge
-12.0%
All 93 games
65%60/93 over 0.5
Window avg
1.02
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
2026
67%
14/21
Avg1.02
StreakW4

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.250.43819.0%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.250.40815.2%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.182.33320.0%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.192.19242.9%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.130.13034.9%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.261.37514.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitsall 93 games vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs STL08/011@ SF08/120@ LAD08/151@ LAD08/161vs SF08/180vs LAD08/220vs MIL09/231vs AZ09/272@ CHC09/302vs DET03/261vs DET03/270@ BOS04/043@ BOS04/051@ LAA04/182vs CHC04/270vs CWS05/012vs CWS05/031vs STL05/070@ MIL05/140vs OAK05/220vs PHI05/251vs PHI05/271@ WSH05/300@ PHI06/032vs CIN06/080@ BAL06/141@ TEX06/202vs ATL06/242@ CHC06/291@ CHC06/300.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-216+161
dabble_us_dfs0.5-154+156

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Ty France SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.412.263.400.286.205.250.083.321.129
sluggingPercentage
.765.421.421.654.227.357.333.393.161
AVG
.412.263.368.308.205.250.083.321.129
OPS
1.176.684.800.893.432.607.417.714.290
Exit Velo
94.2994.4990.6588.1992.4986.3690.5393.9284.53