Tonight's line
15.5
Model proj
15.75
Edge
+3.1%Last 20
75%15/20 over 15.5
Window avg
16.90
Median
18.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
75%
15/20
2026
83%
5/6
Avg16.68
StreakW2
Parlay pairs — when Spencer Arrighetti clears 15.5 Pitcher Outs, these hit too
Yainer Diaz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 68% · n=16 · -230 DraftKings
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 62% · base 48% · n=26 · -125 Bovada
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Pitcher Outs — last 20 vs 15.5
home only · official box scoresLine movement — Pitcher Outs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs WSH — Pitcher Outs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 15.5
| Tatsuya Imai HOU | 07/07 | 11 | ✗ |
| Mike Burrows HOU | 07/06 | 13 | ✗ |
| Bubba Chandler PIT | 07/05 | 12 | ✗ |
| Braxton Ashcraft PIT | 07/04 | 17 | ✓ |
| Mitch Keller PIT | 07/03 | 18 | ✓ |
| Payton Tolle BOS | 07/01 | 9 | ✗ |
| Connelly Early BOS | 06/30 | 12 | ✗ |
| Ranger Suarez BOS | 06/29 | 18 | ✓ |
| Kyle Bradish BAL | 06/28 | 12 | ✗ |
| Brandon Young BAL | 06/27 | 15 | ✗ |
| Trevor Rogers BAL | 06/26 | 19 | ✓ |
| Cristopher Sánchez PHI | 06/25 | 15 | ✗ |
| Aaron Nola PHI | 06/24 | 15 | ✗ |
| Jesús Luzardo PHI | 06/23 | 20 | ✓ |