Tonight's line
4.5
Model proj
5.50
Edge
+10.8%Last 15
67%10/15 over 4.5
Window avg
5.80
Median
5.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
64%
9/14
Avg5.62
StreakL1
Parlay pairs — when Spencer Arrighetti clears 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts, these hit too
Jose Altuve o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 77% · n=28 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Isaac Paredes o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 60% · n=9 · +146 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Pitcher Strikeouts — last 15 vs 4.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Pitcher Strikeouts
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 4.5 | -131 | +102 |
| PrizePicks | 4.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Betr Picks | 4.5 | -137 | -137 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 4.5 | -109 | +110 |
Line movement — Pitcher Strikeouts
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsPrizePicksBetr Picksdabble_us_dfs
League vs WSH — Pitcher Strikeouts, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 4.5
| Tatsuya Imai HOU | 07/07 | 3 | ✗ |
| Mike Burrows HOU | 07/06 | 3 | ✗ |
| Bubba Chandler PIT | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Braxton Ashcraft PIT | 07/04 | 7 | ✓ |
| Mitch Keller PIT | 07/03 | 1 | ✗ |
| Payton Tolle BOS | 07/01 | 5 | ✓ |
| Connelly Early BOS | 06/30 | 5 | ✓ |
| Ranger Suarez BOS | 06/29 | 8 | ✓ |
| Kyle Bradish BAL | 06/28 | 2 | ✗ |
| Brandon Young BAL | 06/27 | 8 | ✓ |
| Trevor Rogers BAL | 06/26 | 7 | ✓ |
| Cristopher Sánchez PHI | 06/25 | 6 | ✓ |
| Aaron Nola PHI | 06/24 | 5 | ✓ |
| Jesús Luzardo PHI | 06/23 | 13 | ✓ |
Pitch arsenal — 2026
Usage share and average velocity by pitch type.
Curveball33.0% · 76.6 mph
Four-seam FB29.7% · 92.4 mph
Sweeper12.5% · 79.3 mph
Sinker10.1% · 92.1 mph
Changeup7.4% · 84.1 mph
Cutter6.0% · 87.4 mph
Slider1.2% · 82.2 mph