Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jackson Holliday

Baltimore Orioles · 2B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.14
Edge
+3.8%
Last 249
10%26/249 over 0.5
Window avg
0.11
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
13%
5/40
Avg0.11
StreakL7

Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
41.9%
93.7.158.36832.6%
Changeup
17.8%
87.7.100.10033.3%
Slider
11.1%
86.0.235.41235.3%
Sweeper
9.2%
83.0.000.00022.2%
Sinker
9.1%
92.4.067.06720.8%
Cutter
6.0%
87.0.5001.2500.0%
Curveball
5.0%
79.8.200.20055.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Jackson Holliday clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Colton Cowser o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 60% · n=19 · -122 dabble_us_dfs
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 63% · base 60% · n=19 · -149 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 249 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs TOR05/300vs TOR05/310@ BOS06/030@ BOS06/040@ TOR06/050@ TOR06/060@ TOR06/070vs SEA06/080vs SEA06/091vs SEA06/100vs SEA06/110vs SD06/120vs SD06/130vs SD06/140@ SEA06/161@ SEA06/170@ SEA06/180@ LAD06/190@ LAD06/200@ LAA06/240vs WSH06/260vs WSH06/271vs WSH06/280vs CWS06/290vs CWS06/300vs CWS07/010@ CIN07/030@ CIN07/040@ CIN07/050vs CHC07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1036-1000

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs CHC Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Dylan Beavers BAL07/070
Taylor Ward BAL07/070
Coby Mayo BAL07/070
Pete Alonso BAL07/070
Adley Rutschman BAL07/070
Blaze Alexander BAL07/070
Gunnar Henderson BAL07/070
Samuel Basallo BAL07/070
Jordan Walker STL07/051
Nathan Church STL07/050
JJ Wetherholt STL07/050
Bryan Torres STL07/050
Iván Herrera STL07/050
Alec Burleson STL07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.0001.5001.000.500.231.625.333.615.333
AVG
.000.400.286.125.077.125.167.333.200
onBasePercentage
.000.400.286.125.077.125.167.308.167
sluggingPercentage
.0001.100.714.375.154.500.167.333.200
Exit Velo
87.9596.0092.9185.8890.9691.0575.2390.4498.55