Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Drew Millas

Washington Nationals · C · Bats S

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.04
Edge
-1.8%
Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
5%
2/43
Avg0.04
StreakL12

Tonight's matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)

Bats SwitchThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Curveball
33.0%
76.6.067.06736.0%
Four-seam FB
29.7%
92.4.225.32513.5%
Sweeper
12.5%
79.3.000.00028.6%
Sinker
10.1%
92.1.133.33311.5%
Changeup
7.4%
84.1.278.38935.0%
Cutter
6.0%
87.4.231.23114.3%
Slider
1.2%
82.2.176.23538.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ CIN05/140vs BAL05/150vs NYM05/180vs NYM05/190@ ATL05/220@ CLE05/250@ CLE05/271vs SD05/300vs MIA06/020@ AZ06/050@ SF06/090vs SEA06/130vs KC06/160@ TB06/210vs PHI06/240@ BAL06/270@ BOS07/010vs PIT07/040vs PIT07/050vs HOU07/060.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1584-1429

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs HOU Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

James Wood WSH07/071
Luis García Jr. WSH07/070
Jacob Young WSH07/070
Curtis Mead WSH07/070
CJ Abrams WSH07/070
Keibert Ruiz WSH07/070
Jorbit Vivas WSH07/070
Nasim Nuñez WSH07/070
Daylen Lile WSH07/070
CJ Abrams WSH07/061
Curtis Mead WSH07/061
James Wood WSH07/061
Luis García Jr. WSH07/060
Jacob Young WSH07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.385.000.250.000.200.231.167.227.286
sluggingPercentage
.462.000.286.000.500.500.167.273.333
AVG
.385.000.286.000.200.250.167.227.167
OPS
.846.000.500.000.700.692.333.500.571
Exit Velo
87.8089.8259.4684.7589.7375.0081.9685.0093.02