Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.68
Edge
+10.5%All 121 games
33%40/121 over 1.5
Window avg
1.37
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
39%
18/46
Avg1.37
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 58.7% | 95.0 | .279 | .523 | 21.3% |
| Slurve | 30.4% | 82.2 | .143 | .143 | 20.0% |
| Changeup | 9.3% | 86.3 | .325 | .575 | 39.7% |
| Sinker | 1.7% | 94.8 | .258 | .424 | 19.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jordan Walker clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Masyn Winn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 61% · n=72 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 65% · n=83 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 121 games vs 1.5
home only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +124 | -165 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +125 | -165 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +133 | -132 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfsBetr Picks
League vs MIL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Nelson Velázquez STL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Blaze Jordan STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Crooks STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS