Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.12
Edge
-5.2%Last 10
20%2/10 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
10%
2/20
Avg0.14
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 28.8% | 89.6 | .364 | .409 | 32.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 26.8% | 93.4 | .290 | .387 | 24.7% |
| Sweeper | 16.1% | 83.4 | .206 | .294 | 32.1% |
| Curveball | 12.7% | 86.3 | .214 | .286 | 35.9% |
| Changeup | 7.8% | 86.7 | .257 | .400 | 37.7% |
| Sinker | 7.8% | 93.0 | .315 | .416 | 15.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Fernando Tatis Jr. clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Gavin Sheets o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 57% · n=28 · -148 DraftKings
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 62% · n=43 · -206 DraftKings
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=43 · -141 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 10 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +499 | -476 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs AZ — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jake Cronenworth SD | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Manny Machado SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Merrill SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Gavin Sheets SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sung-Mun Song SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Campusano SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Manny Machado SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Gavin Sheets SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sung-Mun Song SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodolfo Durán SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Merrill SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo