Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Fernando Tatis Jr.

San Diego Padres · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.99
Edge
+14.4%
All 25 games
56%14/25 over 1.5
Window avg
2.28
Median
2.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
25%
1/4
Avg2.28
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.364.40932.0%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.290.38724.7%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.206.29432.1%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.214.28635.9%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.257.40037.7%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.315.41615.3%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Fernando Tatis Jr. clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Gavin Sheets o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=88 · -148 DraftKings
Sung-Mun Song o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 45% · n=12 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 62% · n=134 · -206 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Basesall 25 games vs 1.5

vs AZ only · official box scores
6@ AZ05/031@ AZ05/043@ AZ05/054vs AZ06/064vs AZ06/072vs AZ06/084vs AZ06/090@ AZ09/270@ AZ09/293@ AZ06/132@ AZ06/146@ AZ06/150vs AZ07/071vs AZ07/082vs AZ07/095vs AZ07/101@ AZ08/040@ AZ08/054vs AZ09/264vs AZ09/271vs AZ09/281@ AZ04/251@ AZ04/260vs AZ07/062vs AZ07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5+130-174
Betr Picks1.5-137
dabble_us_dfs1.5+125-123

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfsBetr Picks

League vs AZ Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Jake Cronenworth SD07/074
Luis Campusano SD07/072
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Manny Machado SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Manny Machado SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Samad Taylor SD07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.923.769.706.825.7441.088.737.821.590
AVG
.385.360.294.333.325.455.211.357.282
onBasePercentage
.385.346.294.325.302.441.211.357.282
sluggingPercentage
.538.440.412.513.475.667.526.464.308
Exit Velo
91.88100.2197.5390.5393.2696.8997.4999.8784.46