Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.55
Edge
-2.3%Last 15
15%2/13 over 2 · 2 push
Window avg
1.07
Median
1.0
L5
33%
1/3
L10
13%
1/8
L20
22%
4/18
2026
28%
15/53
Avg1.48
Streak—
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats SwitchThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .260 | .481 | 9.9% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .273 | .318 | 23.1% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .280 | .560 | 21.4% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .267 | .333 | 13.5% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .188 | .344 | 14.3% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .429 | 1.214 | 21.4% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .214 | .214 | 19.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Adley Rutschman clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Pete Alonso o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 68% · n=23 · -250 BetOnline
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 57% · n=17 · -192 BetOnline
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 71% · base 57% · n=17 · -185 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 15 vs 2
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +119 | -158 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +120 | -156 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +120 | -160 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsBovada
League vs CHC — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Pete Alonso BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 4 | ✓ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
onBasePercentage
OPS