Tonight's line
15.5
Model proj
15.79
Edge
+9.5%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 10
50%5/10 over 15.5
Window avg
13.20
Median
15.5
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
33%
5/15
2026
67%
2/3
Avg12.20
StreakW2
Parlay pairs — when Colin Rea clears 15.5 Pitcher Outs, these hit too
Alex Bregman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 100% · base 85% · n=8 · -238 BetOnline
Michael Busch o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 58% · n=24 · -208 BetOnline
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 69% · n=24 · -147 DraftKings
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 57% · n=22 · -173 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Pitcher Outs — last 10 vs 15.5
official box scoresLine movement — Pitcher Outs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs BAL — Pitcher Outs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 15.5
| Matthew Boyd CHC | 07/07 | 18 | ✓ |
| Nick Lodolo CIN | 07/05 | 18 | ✓ |
| Hunter Greene CIN | 07/04 | 10 | ✗ |
| Brady Singer CIN | 07/03 | 15 | ✗ |
| Noah Schultz CWS | 07/01 | 13 | ✗ |
| Erick Fedde CWS | 06/30 | 15 | ✗ |
| Sean Burke CWS | 06/29 | 16 | ✓ |
| Zack Littell WSH | 06/28 | 15 | ✗ |
| Foster Griffin WSH | 06/27 | 21 | ✓ |
| Andrew Alvarez WSH | 06/26 | 13 | ✗ |
| José Soriano LAA | 06/24 | 9 | ✗ |
| Ryan Johnson LAA | 06/23 | 18 | ✓ |
| Sam Aldegheri LAA | 06/22 | 14 | ✗ |
| Emmet Sheehan LAD | 06/21 | 10 | ✗ |
Pitch arsenal — 2026
Usage share and average velocity by pitch type.
Four-seam FB41.9% · 93.7 mph
Changeup17.8% · 87.7 mph
Slider11.1% · 86.0 mph
Sweeper9.2% · 83.0 mph
Sinker9.1% · 92.4 mph
Cutter6.0% · 87.0 mph
Curveball5.0% · 79.8 mph