Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.43
Edge
-12.5%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
6%1/17 over 1 · 3 push
Window avg
0.25
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/4
L10
0%
0/8
L20
6%
1/17
2026
24%
9/38
Avg0.64
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .343 | .486 | 15.9% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .176 | .235 | 48.8% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .000 | .000 | 44.1% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .231 | .308 | 42.1% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jorge Mateo clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 77% · base 56% · n=13 · +137 dabble_us_dfs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 55% · n=17 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 76% · base 55% · n=17 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 65% · n=13 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 20 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Hits
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 0.5 | -103 | -129 |
| PrizePicks | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Underdog | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| DK Pick6 | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Betr Picks | 0.5 | -137 | -137 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -102 | +103 |
Line movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsUnderdogPrizePicksBetr PicksDK Pick6dabble_us_dfs
League vs PIT — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
Exit Velo