Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jorge Mateo

Atlanta Braves · 2B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.04
Edge
-2.8%
Trending splitsHome 0%(21)
Last 20
0%0/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.00
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
8%
4/48
Avg0.07
StreakL20

Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
38.0%
98.6.343.48615.9%
Slider
32.6%
90.2.176.23548.8%
Changeup
17.8%
93.4.000.00044.1%
Curveball
11.6%
85.7.231.30842.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs TOR06/020vs TOR06/040vs PIT06/070@ CWS06/090@ CWS06/100@ NYM06/120@ NYM06/130@ NYM06/140vs SF06/170vs MIL06/190vs MIL06/200@ SD06/220@ SD06/230@ SD06/240vs STL06/300vs STL07/010vs NYM07/030vs NYM07/040vs NYM07/050vs NYM07/060.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1303-1250

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs PIT Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Drake Baldwin ATL07/070
Dominic Smith ATL07/070
Austin Riley ATL07/070
Ozzie Albies ATL07/070
Mike Yastrzemski ATL07/070
Mauricio Dubón ATL07/070
Jim Jarvis ATL07/070
Michael Harris II ATL07/070
Matt Olson ATL07/070
Luis García Jr. WSH07/051
Dylan Crews WSH07/051
CJ Abrams WSH07/050
Keibert Ruiz WSH07/050
Curtis Mead WSH07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.200.231.125.500.286.333.500.400.000
sluggingPercentage
.200.385.0001.125.286.444.500.400.000
AVG
.200.231.000.500.286.333.500.400.000
OPS
.400.615.1251.625.571.7781.000.800.000
Exit Velo
88.9090.7783.23100.62100.5976.5294.3593.5368.76