Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Wilyer Abreu

Boston Red Sox · RF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.60
Edge
-1.4%
Last 10
50%5/10 over 0.5
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.5
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
34%
22/64
Avg0.50
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.227.43226.5%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.321.44615.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.222.25932.3%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.271.45830.5%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.303.48513.4%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.238.52420.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Wilyer Abreu clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Anthony Seigler o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 89% · base 81% · n=9 · -169 dabble_us_dfs
Willson Contreras o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 69% · n=37 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Willson Contreras o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 73% · base 49% · n=37 · +121 dabble_us_dfs
Anthony Seigler o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 56% · n=9 · +136 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 10 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ SEA06/192@ SEA06/201@ COL06/220vs NYY06/251vs NYY06/260vs NYY06/271vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/300vs WSH07/011@ LAA07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
DK Pick60.5-137
dabble_us_dfs0.5+115-114

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.511:15 AM ET11:15 AM ET
dabble_us_dfsDK Pick6

League vs CWS Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Connor Wong BOS07/072
Andruw Monasterio BOS07/071
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/071
Willson Contreras BOS07/071
Jarren Duran BOS07/071
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/071
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Anthony Seigler BOS07/070
Kyle Manzardo CLE07/052
Chase DeLauter CLE07/052
Gabriel Arias CLE07/051
Travis Bazzana CLE07/051
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/050
Patrick Bailey CLE07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.588.4761.000.500.372.458.226.263.846
Exit Velo
94.2896.8090.0595.9292.2392.4291.7293.5595.01
AVG
.353.333.375.333.209.250.161.184.538
onBasePercentage
.368.333.353.296.209.250.161.184.538
OPS
.895.8101.294.741.581.708.387.4471.385