Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.10
Edge
-10.4%Last 268
25%54/219 over 2 · 49 push
Window avg
1.53
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
22%
2/9
L20
16%
3/19
2026
23%
17/75
Avg1.53
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 58.7% | 95.0 | .253 | .437 | 15.3% |
| Slurve | 30.4% | 82.2 | — | — | — |
| Changeup | 9.3% | 86.3 | .294 | .412 | 21.7% |
| Sinker | 1.7% | 94.8 | .231 | .431 | 12.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Iván Herrera clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
JJ Wetherholt o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 80% · base 66% · n=30 · -182 dabble_us_dfs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 67% · n=92 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
JJ Wetherholt o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 70% · base 47% · n=30 · +147 dabble_us_dfs
Michael McGreevy o16.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 69% · base 66% · n=13 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 268 vs 2
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +142 | -189 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +145 | -190 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +147 | -145 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs MIL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Nelson Velázquez STL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Crooks STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo