Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.09
Edge
-5.5%All 268 games
1%2/268 over 1.5
Window avg
0.13
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
1%
1/90
Avg0.13
StreakL22
Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 58.7% | 95.0 | .253 | .437 | 15.3% |
| Slurve | 30.4% | 82.2 | — | — | — |
| Changeup | 9.3% | 86.3 | .294 | .412 | 21.7% |
| Sinker | 1.7% | 94.8 | .231 | .431 | 12.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Iván Herrera clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Pedro Pagés o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 54% · n=16 · +101 DraftKings
Pedro Pagés o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 81% · base 54% · n=16 · -137 PrizePicks
JJ Wetherholt o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 66% · n=9 · -182 dabble_us_dfs
JJ Wetherholt o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 47% · n=9 · +147 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 268 games vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +614 | -588 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs MIL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nelson Velázquez STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Blaze Jordan STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Crooks STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
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