Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.09
Edge
-14.5%Trending splitsvs RHP 8%(40)
Last 400
17%67/400 over 0.5
Window avg
0.17
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
16%
15/91
Avg0.17
StreakL15
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .140 | .256 | 18.7% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .269 | .462 | 22.1% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .179 | .304 | 32.5% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .233 | .500 | 31.5% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .278 | .458 | 13.6% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .300 | .750 | 40.5% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .294 | .500 | 25.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Gunnar Henderson clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Taylor Ward o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 80% · base 63% · n=20 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=9 · -192 BetOnline
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=9 · -185 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 400 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +338 | -333 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs CHC — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Pete Alonso BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS