Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ernie Clement

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.46
Edge
+1.4%
Last 5
0%0/4 over 3 · 1 push
Window avg
1.00
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/4
L10
13%
1/8
L20
6%
1/18
2026
15%
12/79
Avg1.51
Streak

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.362.4934.2%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.235.44121.7%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.286.35733.3%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.366.58512.7%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.156.28117.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Ernie Clement clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 70% · n=144 · -247 DraftKings
George Springer o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 63% · n=117 · -235 DraftKings
Jonatan Clase o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 54% · n=19 · -111 DraftKings
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 58% · n=87 · -198 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 5 vs 3

official box scores
0@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/041@ SEA07/051@ SF07/063@ SF07/073

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5+150-201
Bovada1.5+150-200

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:10 AM ET12:10 AM ET
DraftKingsBovada

League vs SF Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Jonatan Clase TOR07/075
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/064
Nathan Lukes TOR07/061
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Daulton Varsho TOR07/060
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/060
Sean Keys TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.308.310.400.333.310.273.176.240.455
AVG
.308.310.400.333.317.300.176.240.455
Exit Velo
81.6085.9390.1886.0088.8589.8488.2988.0187.08
sluggingPercentage
.769.414.600.524.439.550.176.320.500
OPS
1.077.7241.000.857.738.773.353.560.955