Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ernie Clement

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.08
Edge
-0.3%
Last 20
70%14/20 over 0.5
Window avg
1.15
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
73%
16/22
Avg1.24
StreakW2

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.362.4934.2%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.235.44121.7%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.286.35733.3%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.366.58512.7%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.156.28117.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Ernie Clement clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Dylan Cease o6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 90% · base 78% · n=10 · -139 dabble_us_dfs
George Springer o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 63% · n=206 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 58% · n=142 · -198 DraftKings
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 59% · n=155 · -172 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs LAD04/061@ LAA04/202vs CLE04/250vs BOS04/270vs BOS04/281@ MIN05/020@ TB05/060vs LAA05/082vs TB05/121@ NYY05/183@ NYY05/211@ BAL05/293@ ATL06/042vs PHI06/081vs PHI06/102vs NYY06/120@ BOS06/160@ BOS06/172vs TEX06/251vs NYM06/290.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-240+178
dabble_us_dfs0.5-217+221

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Nathan Lukes TOR07/082
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/081
Daulton Varsho TOR07/081
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/080
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/080
George Springer TOR07/080
Andrés Giménez TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/080
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.308.310.400.333.310.273.176.240.455
AVG
.308.310.400.333.317.300.176.240.455
Exit Velo
81.6085.9390.1886.0088.8589.8488.2988.0187.08
sluggingPercentage
.769.414.600.524.439.550.176.320.500
OPS
1.077.7241.000.857.738.773.353.560.955