Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.27
Edge
+7.6%Last 5
20%1/5 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
27%
7/26
Avg0.11
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33.0% | 76.6 | .462 | .846 | 22.2% |
| Four-seam FB | 29.7% | 92.4 | .239 | .408 | 13.9% |
| Sweeper | 12.5% | 79.3 | .087 | .217 | 37.5% |
| Sinker | 10.1% | 92.1 | .265 | .633 | 12.0% |
| Changeup | 7.4% | 84.1 | .280 | .440 | 11.3% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.4 | .222 | .611 | 18.2% |
| Slider | 1.2% | 82.2 | .205 | .436 | 22.5% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Curtis Mead clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jacob Young o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 92% · base 62% · n=13 · -155 DraftKings
Nasim Nuñez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 62% · n=14 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Nasim Nuñez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 79% · base 62% · n=14 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Jacob Young o0.5 Batter Strikeouts
hits when he does 77% · base 58% · n=13 · -137 Betr Picks
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 5 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +535 | -526 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs HOU — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| James Wood WSH | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Young WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorbit Vivas WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| James Wood WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jacob Young WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS