Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Gavin Sheets

San Diego Padres · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.78
Edge
-1.5%
Last 20
0%0/20 over 3.5
Window avg
0.75
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/84
Avg0.79
StreakL265

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.368.89516.7%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.230.48315.0%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.214.42948.0%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.261.43526.2%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.195.31726.7%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.231.38514.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Gavin Sheets clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 69% · n=129 · -258 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 3.5

official box scores
0@ STL06/161@ STL06/172@ TEX06/190@ TEX06/201@ TEX06/210vs ATL06/220vs ATL06/230vs ATL06/241vs LAD06/263vs LAD06/270vs LAD06/280@ CHC06/291@ CHC06/301@ CHC07/011@ LAD07/021@ LAD07/031@ LAD07/041@ LAD07/051vs AZ07/060vs AZ07/073.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-148+111
dabble_us_dfs0.5-164+164

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Manny Machado SD07/070
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Manny Machado SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.056.278.667.227.500.429.125.385.294
sluggingPercentage
.222.5001.667.2381.231.929.130.692.647
AVG
.056.278.667.190.500.429.087.385.294
OPS
.278.7782.333.4551.7311.357.2501.077.941
Exit Velo
92.9595.6695.1791.5494.9987.8080.8393.2393.62