Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Sal Frelick

Milwaukee Brewers · CF · Bats L

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.01
Edge
-11.6%
Last 5
0%0/5 over 2.5
Window avg
0.40
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
12%
10/83
Avg1.25
StreakL7

Tonight's matchup: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
25.7%
91.6.202.25812.9%
Changeup
21.0%
86.7.250.2506.9%
Sinker
16.5%
90.4.271.3731.2%
Cutter
11.3%
86.8.250.29215.7%
Curveball
11.2%
77.9.5331.06710.7%
Sweeper
10.2%
81.4.167.22215.6%
Slider
4.1%
83.4.259.3338.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Sal Frelick clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Brice Turang o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=119 · -225 DraftKings
William Contreras o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=122 · -251 DraftKings
Joey Ortiz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 53% · n=102 · -127 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 5 vs 2.5

official box scores
0@ AZ07/040@ AZ07/052@ STL07/060@ STL07/070@ STL07/072.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5+140-187
Bovada1.5+140-185

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:11 AM ET12:11 AM ET
DraftKingsBovada

League vs STL Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Joey Ortiz MIL07/075
Christian Yelich MIL07/075
Cooper Pratt MIL07/075
Joey Ortiz MIL07/074
Jake Bauers MIL07/074
Brice Turang MIL07/074
Garrett Mitchell MIL07/072
Gary Sánchez MIL07/071
Andrew Vaughn MIL07/071
Luis Lara MIL07/071
William Contreras MIL07/070
Christian Yelich MIL07/070
Cooper Pratt MIL07/070
Jake Bauers MIL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.563.286.400.333.147.250.286.563.714
Exit Velo
90.9783.4776.2189.0587.3786.4680.0890.1590.35
AVG
.438.250.333.292.147.214.286.250.357
onBasePercentage
.438.241.353.280.147.214.286.250.375
OPS
1.000.517.706.600.294.464.571.8131.000