Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.12
Edge
+4.8%Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
9%
2/23
Avg0.10
StreakL7
Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31.6% | 92.2 | .316 | .368 | 5.1% |
| Changeup | 24.0% | 86.1 | .143 | .143 | 36.4% |
| Sweeper | 19.2% | 84.2 | .111 | .444 | 28.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 13.2% | 92.4 | .111 | .111 | 25.0% |
| Cutter | 12.0% | 89.9 | .000 | .000 | 7.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Alejandro Kirk clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 86% · base 69% · n=22 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 55% · n=18 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 63% · n=21 · -217 dabble_us_dfs
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 58% · n=18 · -147 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +1465 | -1429 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs SF — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/08 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| George Springer TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Valenzuela TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS