Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alejandro Kirk

Toronto Blue Jays · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.65
Edge
-11.2%
Last 5
40%2/5 over 0.5
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
50%
11/22
Avg0.90
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.316.3685.1%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.143.14336.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.111.44428.6%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.111.11125.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.000.0007.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Alejandro Kirk clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 80% · base 62% · n=10 · -140 DraftKings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=154 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
George Springer o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 61% · n=144 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 63% · n=144 · -217 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 5 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs NYM06/302vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/050@ SF07/060.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-172+129
dabble_us_dfs0.5-196+200

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Ernie Clement TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Ernie Clement TOR07/061
Nathan Lukes TOR07/061
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/061
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Daulton Varsho TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.667.000.500.000.182.000.333.286.000
Exit Velo
76.8090.4377.4887.3993.2892.1299.7888.3372.75
onBasePercentage
.667.000.500.000.182.000.286.286.000
sluggingPercentage
.667.000.500.000.455.000.500.714.000
OPS
1.333.0001.000.000.636.000.7141.000.000