Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alejandro Kirk

Toronto Blue Jays · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.11
Edge
-7.4%
Last 20
20%4/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.40
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
33%
2/6
Avg1.48
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.316.3685.1%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.143.14336.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.111.44428.6%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.111.11125.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.000.0007.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Alejandro Kirk clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 69% · n=87 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
George Springer o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 61% · n=84 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 63% · n=81 · -217 dabble_us_dfs
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 55% · n=41 · -120 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 20 vs 1.5

official box scores
0@ LAD08/080@ LAD08/090vs CHC08/140vs TEX08/160@ NYY09/070vs BAL09/120@ TB09/170@ KC09/200vs BOS09/2410vs TB09/281vs NYY10/050@ NYY10/076vs LAD10/241@ LAD10/294vs OAK03/281vs COL04/014vs NYY06/120@ BOS06/160@ BOS06/171vs TEX06/251.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs1.5+187-185

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Jonatan Clase TOR07/075
Ernie Clement TOR07/073
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Daulton Varsho TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/064
Nathan Lukes TOR07/061
Ernie Clement TOR07/061
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Andrés Giménez TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.667.000.500.000.182.000.333.286.000
Exit Velo
76.8090.4377.4887.3993.2892.1299.7888.3372.75
onBasePercentage
.667.000.500.000.182.000.286.286.000
sluggingPercentage
.667.000.500.000.455.000.500.714.000
OPS
1.333.0001.000.000.636.000.7141.000.000