Tonight's line
18.5
Model proj
17.85
Edge
+0.1%Last 20
21%3/14 over 18 · 6 push
Window avg
16.45
Median
17.0
L5
50%
1/2
L10
33%
2/6
L20
21%
3/14
2026
43%
3/7
Avg17.00
StreakW1
Parlay pairs — when George Kirby clears 18.5 Pitcher Outs, these hit too
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 60% · n=14 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 70% · base 50% · n=10 · +106 dabble_us_dfs
Luke Raley o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 60% · n=11 · -132 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Pitcher Outs — last 20 vs 18
official box scoresLine movement — Pitcher Outs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs MIA — Pitcher Outs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 18.5
| Bryan Woo SEA | 07/07 | 15 | ✗ |
| Gage Jump OAK | 07/05 | 9 | ✗ |
| Aaron Civale OAK | 07/04 | 14 | ✗ |
| Jack Perkins OAK | 07/03 | 11 | ✗ |
| Michael Lorenzen COL | 07/02 | 13 | ✗ |
| Kyle Freeland COL | 07/01 | 15 | ✗ |
| Tanner Gordon COL | 06/30 | 15 | ✗ |
| Sean Sullivan COL | 06/29 | 14 | ✗ |
| Kyle Leahy STL | 06/28 | 15 | ✗ |
| Andre Pallante STL | 06/27 | 20 | ✓ |
| Michael McGreevy STL | 06/26 | 18 | ✗ |
| Jacob deGrom TEX | 06/24 | 18 | ✗ |
| Cal Quantrill TEX | 06/23 | 6 | ✗ |
| Tyler Alexander TEX | 06/22 | 3 | ✗ |
Pitch arsenal — 2026
Usage share and average velocity by pitch type.
Sweeper29.9% · 87.1 mph
Four-seam FB29.4% · 96.7 mph
Sinker21.0% · 96.9 mph
Knuckle Curve9.9% · 83.8 mph
Changeup6.7% · 88.7 mph
Cutter3.0% · 93.2 mph