Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.29
Edge
+7.3%Last 20
30%6/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
30%
6/20
2026
19%
17/89
Avg0.18
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 28.8% | 89.6 | .467 | 1.000 | 17.5% |
| Four-seam FB | 26.8% | 93.4 | .245 | .574 | 26.2% |
| Sweeper | 16.1% | 83.4 | .105 | .211 | 39.6% |
| Curveball | 12.7% | 86.3 | .087 | .130 | 30.2% |
| Changeup | 7.8% | 86.7 | .135 | .243 | 26.8% |
| Sinker | 7.8% | 93.0 | .174 | .319 | 18.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Manny Machado clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 82% · base 70% · n=56 · -258 DraftKings
Michael King o4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 80% · base 68% · n=10 · -104 dabble_us_dfs
Michael King o17.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 70% · base 44% · n=10 · -137 PrizePicks
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 66% · base 48% · n=56 · +101 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +466 | -455 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs AZ — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jake Cronenworth SD | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jackson Merrill SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Gavin Sheets SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Campusano SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sung-Mun Song SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Xander Bogaerts SD | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Samad Taylor SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodolfo Durán SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sung-Mun Song SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ty France SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Gavin Sheets SD | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
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