Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Manny Machado

San Diego Padres · DH · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.70
Edge
-9.8%
Trending splitsNight 48%(40)
Last 30
57%17/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.87
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
2026
57%
12/21
Avg1.06
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Cutter
28.8%
89.6.4671.00017.5%
Four-seam FB
26.8%
93.4.245.57426.2%
Sweeper
16.1%
83.4.105.21139.6%
Curveball
12.7%
86.3.087.13030.2%
Changeup
7.8%
86.7.135.24326.8%
Sinker
7.8%
93.0.174.31918.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Manny Machado clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Jackson Merrill o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 64% · n=221 · -206 DraftKings
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 58% · n=213 · -141 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 30 vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ LAD08/161vs SF08/181vs LAD08/221vs BAL09/030@ COL09/050vs CIN09/080vs CIN09/103@ NYM09/170@ CHC09/301vs DET03/261vs DET03/270@ BOS04/042@ BOS04/050@ LAA04/183vs CHC04/271vs CWS05/012vs CWS05/030vs STL05/071@ MIL05/141vs OAK05/220vs PHI05/250vs PHI05/272@ WSH05/301@ PHI06/030vs CIN06/080@ BAL06/142@ TEX06/200vs ATL06/240@ CHC06/292@ CHC06/300.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-180+135
dabble_us_dfs0.5-167+169

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:12 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs AZ Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Luis Campusano SD07/072
Samad Taylor SD07/071
Jackson Merrill SD07/071
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD07/071
Jake Cronenworth SD07/071
Sung-Mun Song SD07/070
Xander Bogaerts SD07/070
Gavin Sheets SD07/070
Jackson Merrill SD07/062
Jake Cronenworth SD07/062
Samad Taylor SD07/061
Ty France SD07/061
Gavin Sheets SD07/061
Rodolfo Durán SD07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.231.545.100.258.273.146.235.133.130
sluggingPercentage
.2311.364.100.700.719.293.471.207.091
AVG
.231.545.100.267.281.146.235.138.091
OPS
.4621.909.200.935.970.439.706.333.217
Exit Velo
88.5299.3894.5894.8995.7187.6494.6989.4875.47