Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.46
Edge
+1.6%All 90 games
36%32/90 over 1.5
Window avg
1.64
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
2026
44%
8/18
Avg1.64
StreakW1
Parlay pairs — when George Springer clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 70% · n=143 · -247 DraftKings
Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 65% · n=130 · -240 DraftKings
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 60% · n=105 · -172 DraftKings
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 53% · n=83 · -130 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 90 games vs 1.5
official box scoresLine movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs SF — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Brandon Valenzuela TOR | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |