Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.37
Edge
-1.3%Last 20
45%9/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.60
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
2026
44%
8/18
Avg1.64
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31.6% | 92.2 | .157 | .196 | 13.3% |
| Changeup | 24.0% | 86.1 | .238 | .429 | 31.7% |
| Sweeper | 19.2% | 84.2 | .161 | .258 | 26.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 13.2% | 92.4 | .233 | .433 | 22.8% |
| Cutter | 12.0% | 89.9 | .333 | .722 | 15.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when George Springer clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 70% · n=143 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 65% · n=130 · -217 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 60% · n=105 · -172 DraftKings
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 53% · n=83 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +129 | -172 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +130 | -170 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +170 | -169 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs SF — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/08 | 5 | ✓ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/08 | 4 | ✓ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/08 | 2 | ✓ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/08 | 2 | ✓ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/08 | 1 | ✗ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/08 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Brandon Valenzuela TOR | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
Exit Velo