Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.09
Edge
+0.6%All 90 games
18%16/90 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
22%
4/18
Avg0.20
StreakL3
Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31.6% | 92.2 | .157 | .196 | 13.3% |
| Changeup | 24.0% | 86.1 | .238 | .429 | 31.7% |
| Sweeper | 19.2% | 84.2 | .161 | .258 | 26.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 13.2% | 92.4 | .233 | .433 | 22.8% |
| Cutter | 12.0% | 89.9 | .333 | .722 | 15.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when George Springer clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 70% · n=52 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 53% · n=32 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 63% · base 47% · n=52 · +176 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 90 games vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +1107 | -1000 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs SF — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Valenzuela TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daulton Varsho TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
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