Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.78
Edge
-3.2%Last 10
29%2/7 over 1 · 3 push
Window avg
0.70
Median
0.5
L5
50%
2/4
L10
29%
2/7
L20
31%
4/13
2026
30%
19/63
Avg0.95
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .212 | .327 | 32.9% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .313 | .375 | 36.0% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .194 | .278 | 40.8% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .130 | .130 | 37.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Austin Riley clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Matt Olson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 68% · n=191 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Dominic Smith o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 52% · n=42 · -137 dabble_us_dfs
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 63% · n=83 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 10 vs 1
official box scoresLine movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs PIT — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS