Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.12
Edge
-0.9%Last 20
15%3/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
18%
7/38
Avg0.14
StreakL6
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats SwitchThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .284 | .580 | 20.1% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .333 | .467 | 21.4% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .240 | .400 | 17.3% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .238 | .310 | 17.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ozzie Albies clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Matt Olson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 71% · n=38 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Austin Riley o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 64% · n=28 · -152 dabble_us_dfs
Mauricio Dubón o0.5 Batter Strikeouts
hits when he does 62% · base 45% · n=13 · -137 Betr Picks
Matt Olson o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 61% · base 43% · n=38 · +108 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +694 | -667 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs PIT — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jorbit Vivas WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| James Wood WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS