Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Daulton Varsho

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.74
Edge
-3.4%
Last 20
50%10/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.80
Median
0.5
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
55%
23/42
Avg0.78
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.372.51215.3%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.227.36417.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.222.22225.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.182.38624.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.227.31813.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Daulton Varsho clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 72% · n=165 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 55% · n=97 · -172 DraftKings
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 57% · n=63 · -198 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ DET05/151@ NYY05/184@ NYY05/191@ NYY05/201@ NYY05/210vs PIT05/222vs MIA05/260@ BAL05/282@ BAL05/290@ ATL06/021@ ATL06/030@ ATL06/040vs BAL06/051vs HOU06/222vs HOU06/240vs TEX06/261vs NYM06/300@ SEA07/030@ SF07/060@ SF07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-149+112
dabble_us_dfs0.5-147+149

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs SF Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/081
Nathan Lukes TOR07/081
Ernie Clement TOR07/081
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/080
George Springer TOR07/080
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/080
Andrés Giménez TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/080
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Ernie Clement TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/071

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.200.192.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.400.750.560.379.368.167.600.333
AVG
.200.200.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
OPS
.400.5771.000.920.586.579.3331.000.556
Exit Velo
93.3987.4778.6789.0993.5180.6283.4689.7386.85