Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Daulton Varsho

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.37
Edge
-4.3%
Last 20
0%0/19 over 2 · 1 push
Window avg
0.25
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/19
2026
0%
0/70
Avg0.54
StreakL11

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.372.51215.3%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.227.36417.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.222.22225.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.182.38624.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.227.31813.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Daulton Varsho clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 83% · base 72% · n=116 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 55% · n=65 · -172 DraftKings
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 61% · n=25 · -140 DraftKings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 48% · n=116 · +176 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 20 vs 2

official box scores
0@ BAL05/300@ BAL05/310@ ATL06/020@ ATL06/030@ ATL06/040vs BAL06/051@ CHC06/201vs HOU06/222vs HOU06/230vs HOU06/240vs TEX06/260vs TEX06/270vs TEX06/280vs NYM06/301vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/040@ SEA07/050@ SF07/060@ SF07/072

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+185-182

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Ernie Clement TOR07/070
Andrés Giménez TOR07/070
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/061
Ernie Clement TOR07/060
Andrés Giménez TOR07/060
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/060
Myles Straw TOR07/060
Nathan Lukes TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.200.192.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.400.750.560.379.368.167.600.333
AVG
.200.200.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
OPS
.400.5771.000.920.586.579.3331.000.556
Exit Velo
93.3987.4778.6789.0993.5180.6283.4689.7386.85