Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.06
Edge
-3.7%Last 20
0%0/20 over 1.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/75
Avg0.16
StreakL91
Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 31.6% | 92.2 | .372 | .512 | 15.3% |
| Changeup | 24.0% | 86.1 | .227 | .364 | 17.4% |
| Sweeper | 19.2% | 84.2 | .222 | .222 | 25.8% |
| Four-seam FB | 13.2% | 92.4 | .182 | .386 | 24.0% |
| Cutter | 12.0% | 89.9 | .227 | .318 | 13.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Daulton Varsho clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 88% · base 72% · n=43 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 74% · base 48% · n=43 · +176 dabble_us_dfs
George Springer o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 60% · base 45% · n=35 · +142 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 55% · n=30 · -172 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +943 | -909 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs SF — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/08 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alejandro Kirk TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ernie Clement TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| George Springer TOR | 07/08 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonatan Clase TOR | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrés Giménez TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Keys TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Lukes TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Valenzuela TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kazuma Okamoto TOR | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
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