Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Daulton Varsho

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.06
Edge
-3.7%
Last 20
0%0/20 over 1.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/75
Avg0.16
StreakL91

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.372.51215.3%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.227.36417.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.222.22225.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.182.38624.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.227.31813.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Daulton Varsho clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 88% · base 72% · n=43 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 74% · base 48% · n=43 · +176 dabble_us_dfs
George Springer o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 60% · base 45% · n=35 · +142 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 55% · n=30 · -172 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 20 vs 1.5

official box scores
0@ BAL05/310@ ATL06/020@ ATL06/030@ ATL06/040vs BAL06/051@ CHC06/200vs HOU06/221vs HOU06/230vs HOU06/240vs TEX06/260vs TEX06/270vs TEX06/280vs NYM06/300vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/040@ SEA07/050@ SF07/060@ SF07/070@ SF07/081.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+943-909

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/081
Nathan Lukes TOR07/080
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/080
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/080
Ernie Clement TOR07/080
Andrés Giménez TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/080
George Springer TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/070
Sean Keys TOR07/070
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.200.192.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.400.750.560.379.368.167.600.333
AVG
.200.200.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
OPS
.400.5771.000.920.586.579.3331.000.556
Exit Velo
93.3987.4778.6789.0993.5180.6283.4689.7386.85