Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Daulton Varsho

Toronto Blue Jays · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.37
Edge
-4.3%
Last 30
47%14/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.70
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
36%
5/14
Avg0.67
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.372.51215.3%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.227.36417.4%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.222.22225.8%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.182.38624.0%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.227.31813.7%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Daulton Varsho clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 83% · base 72% · n=116 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 55% · n=65 · -172 DraftKings
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 61% · n=25 · -140 DraftKings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 48% · n=116 · +176 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 30 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs NYM09/110vs BOS04/290@ LAA05/060vs OAK05/300@ LAD08/080@ LAD08/093vs TEX08/160@ NYY09/071vs BAL09/121@ KC09/200vs BOS09/242vs TB09/284vs NYY10/051@ NYY10/072vs LAD10/241@ LAD10/291vs OAK03/281vs LAD04/060@ LAA04/201vs CLE04/250vs BOS04/270vs BOS04/281@ MIN05/020@ TB05/060vs LAA05/080vs TB05/120@ NYY05/180@ NYY05/211@ BAL05/290@ ATL06/040.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+185-182

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/072
Jonatan Clase TOR07/072
Sean Keys TOR07/072
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/071
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/071
Andrés Giménez TOR07/070
Ernie Clement TOR07/070
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Kazuma Okamoto TOR07/061
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/060
Andrés Giménez TOR07/060
Nathan Lukes TOR07/060
Ernie Clement TOR07/060
Myles Straw TOR07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.200.192.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
sluggingPercentage
.200.400.750.560.379.368.167.600.333
AVG
.200.200.250.360.207.211.167.400.222
OPS
.400.5771.000.920.586.579.3331.000.556
Exit Velo
93.3987.4778.6789.0993.5180.6283.4689.7386.85