Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.28
Edge
+0.5%Trending splitsDay 13%(24)
Last 30
17%5/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.27
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
23%
21/90
Avg0.20
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .248 | .545 | 24.7% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .333 | .641 | 33.3% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .167 | .472 | 26.1% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .258 | .323 | 22.5% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Matt Olson clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 68% · n=63 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Drake Baldwin o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 64% · n=38 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 60% · base 43% · n=63 · +119 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 30 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +325 | -323 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs PIT — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| James Wood WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorbit Vivas WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS