Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.28
Edge
+4.7%All 174 games
22%39/174 over 1.5
Window avg
0.96
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
23%
9/40
Avg0.96
StreakW4
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .298 | .526 | 21.1% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .255 | .471 | 30.4% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .383 | .596 | 31.0% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .160 | .280 | 46.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Michael Harris II clears 1.5 Hits, these hit too
Matt Olson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 70% · n=97 · -214 DraftKings
Dominic Smith o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 52% · n=24 · -193 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — all 174 games vs 1.5
home only · official box scoresLine movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs PIT — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Dominic Smith ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS