Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.11
Edge
+0.4%All 267 games
11%30/267 over 0.5
Window avg
0.12
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
10%
6/58
Avg0.12
StreakL5
Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 25.2% | 95.8 | .340 | .426 | 20.2% |
| Sweeper | 24.1% | 84.2 | .237 | .342 | 19.4% |
| Splitter | 24.0% | 87.4 | .083 | .083 | 40.0% |
| Curveball | 16.5% | 83.6 | .250 | .563 | 31.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 9.1% | 96.3 | .233 | .395 | 33.3% |
| Slider | 1.1% | 88.7 | .327 | .612 | 31.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Randy Arozarena clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
J.P. Crawford o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 62% · n=37 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Josh Naylor o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 69% · n=18 · -233 dabble_us_dfs
Victor Robles o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 57% · n=11 · -152 dabble_us_dfs
Cole Young o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 58% · n=24 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 267 games vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +862 | -833 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs MIA — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Cole Young SEA | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dominic Canzone SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Colt Emerson SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Naylor SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Raley SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Robles SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| J.P. Crawford SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonah Heim OAK | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Henry Bolte OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Gelof OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Cortes OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brian Serven OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS