Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Randy Arozarena

Seattle Mariners · LF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.65
Edge
+6.0%
Last 20
18%3/17 over 3 · 3 push
Window avg
1.80
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
22%
2/9
L20
18%
3/17
2026
15%
11/75
Avg1.53
StreakL2

Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
25.2%
95.8.340.42620.2%
Sweeper
24.1%
84.2.237.34219.4%
Splitter
24.0%
87.4.083.08340.0%
Curveball
16.5%
83.6.250.56331.6%
Four-seam FB
9.1%
96.3.233.39533.3%
Slider
1.1%
88.7.327.61231.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Total Baseslast 20 vs 3

official box scores
3@ DET06/061@ DET06/073@ BAL06/086@ BAL06/090@ BAL06/100@ BAL06/111@ WSH06/120@ PIT06/230@ PIT06/241@ PIT06/252@ CLE06/265@ CLE06/270@ CLE06/280vs LAA06/293vs LAA06/301vs LAA07/020vs TOR07/037vs TOR07/041vs TOR07/052@ MIA07/073

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
Betr Picks1.5-137
dabble_us_dfs1.5+156-154

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.511:15 AM ET11:15 AM ET
dabble_us_dfsBetr Picks

League vs MIA Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Cole Young SEA07/074
Cal Raleigh SEA07/074
Luke Raley SEA07/072
Josh Naylor SEA07/071
J.P. Crawford SEA07/071
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Colt Emerson SEA07/070
Jonah Heim OAK07/055
Lawrence Butler OAK07/052
Carlos Cortes OAK07/052
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051
Brian Serven OAK07/051
Zack Gelof OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.125.174.400.286.297.357.154.429.579
Exit Velo
73.4584.3795.0583.7994.0393.2179.7793.7996.47
onBasePercentage
.125.167.423.286.289.357.154.429.579
sluggingPercentage
.125.435.600.286.541.452.154.821.789
OPS
.250.5831.000.571.816.810.3081.2501.368