Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.85
Edge
+12.0%Trending splitsvs LHP 19%(26)
Last 30
33%10/30 over 2.5
Window avg
1.97
Median
1.5
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
29%
25/87
Avg1.52
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Michael McGreevy (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 25.7% | 91.6 | .232 | .414 | 22.7% |
| Changeup | 21.0% | 86.7 | .194 | .333 | 17.9% |
| Sinker | 16.5% | 90.4 | .277 | .492 | 15.4% |
| Cutter | 11.3% | 86.8 | .450 | .950 | 19.1% |
| Curveball | 11.2% | 77.9 | .419 | .613 | 22.7% |
| Sweeper | 10.2% | 81.4 | .190 | .429 | 26.5% |
| Slider | 4.1% | 83.4 | .244 | .356 | 24.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Brice Turang clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 71% · n=118 · -262 DraftKings
Sal Frelick o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 62% · n=142 · -172 dabble_us_dfs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 61% · base 49% · n=118 · +117 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 30 vs 2.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +128 | -171 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | — |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +130 | -170 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +127 | -125 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfsBetr Picks
League vs STL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Jake Bauers MIL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Andrew Vaughn MIL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Gary Sánchez MIL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Luis Lara MIL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jake Bauers MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo