Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.10
Edge
+0.6%Last 20
10%2/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
7%
2/30
Avg0.14
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Michael McGreevy (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 25.7% | 91.6 | .222 | .370 | 15.5% |
| Changeup | 21.0% | 86.7 | .346 | .423 | 28.8% |
| Sinker | 16.5% | 90.4 | .341 | .466 | 8.8% |
| Cutter | 11.3% | 86.8 | .457 | .743 | 17.5% |
| Curveball | 11.2% | 77.9 | .313 | .313 | 43.3% |
| Sweeper | 10.2% | 81.4 | .114 | .229 | 23.7% |
| Slider | 4.1% | 83.4 | .250 | .250 | 23.9% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when William Contreras clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 71% · n=34 · -262 DraftKings
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 65% · base 48% · n=34 · +117 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +979 | -909 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs STL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrew Vaughn MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Bauers MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brice Turang MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Lara MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brice Turang MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS