Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Jarren Duran

Boston Red Sox · LF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.71
Edge
-10.0%
Trending splitsAway 50%(40)
Last 20
55%11/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.65
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
2026
59%
37/63
Avg1.04
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.174.43034.8%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.400.65021.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.167.33337.2%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.100.16047.3%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.259.40722.6%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.205.35942.4%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Jarren Duran clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Masataka Yoshida o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 63% · n=154 · -179 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs BAL06/030@ NYY06/071@ TB06/091@ TB06/101vs TEX06/121vs TEX06/131vs TEX06/142vs TOR06/160vs TOR06/170vs TOR06/181@ SEA06/190@ SEA06/200@ SEA06/210@ COL06/221vs NYY06/251vs NYY06/260vs NYY06/270vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/302@ LAA07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-184+137
BetOnline0.5-192+145
dabble_us_dfs0.5-156+158

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs CWS Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/072
Willson Contreras BOS07/072
Andruw Monasterio BOS07/072
Connor Wong BOS07/071
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/071
Anthony Seigler BOS07/071
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Chase DeLauter CLE07/052
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/052
Gabriel Arias CLE07/052
Kahlil Watson CLE07/051
Travis Bazzana CLE07/051
Patrick Bailey CLE07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.182.292.350.346.257.345.160.211.214
AVG
.100.318.368.320.265.333.160.211.214
Exit Velo
101.9589.0584.3993.3295.6285.8587.5491.9494.39
sluggingPercentage
.400.409.842.360.618.556.240.579.429
OPS
.545.6671.150.692.857.862.400.789.643